Embracing the future

Nothing, it seems, can halt the smartphone revolution in the region. With all of the new video and Internet-based devices getting connected, the region's telecom networks are carrying immense traffic and, inevitably, coming under increased pressure. To cope with the challenge, operators are scrambling to boost capacities and increase throughput, but at the same time improve on the customer experience. Where possible, it's accompanied by tariff reduction as operators scramble to remain competitive. "Revenue from voice services is falling drastically while that from data is growing drastically due to the growth in smartphones, and this is going to continue regionally as well as globally," Hadi Raad, principal analyst at Booz and Co. "This is forcing telco operators to embrace the technology." A smartphone user generates 1.8 times higher revenues, which calls for massive expansions to the network. Smartphone users will grow from 10 million to 100 million by 2014, of which 20 million could be on the LTE (long-term evolution) platform. By 2014, 20 million users could be on LTE. Article continues below Based on demand, LTE is the appropriate solution to these challenges. To curtail costs, operators have no choice but to boost spectrum efficiency. In areas where fibre has not reached, there are huge opportunities for LTE to cover the gap in broadband. Significant advantages Deployment of LTE is booming due to services like video monitoring, remote healthcare, finance, public utilities, telematics and security capabilities.For operators it offers significant advantages as the IP-based, flat architecture networks reduce capital and operating expenditures. "The need is there for the development of upcoming technologies, but also, on a socio-economic level, it will increase the prosperity of the population and the country as a whole," said Tarun Chhabra, regional head of network systems sales, Nokia Siemens Networks. The more aggressive mobile operators have already deployed LTE globally; TeliaSoneria is the world's first operator to launch commercial services in Oslo in December 2009. There have been 20 commercially launched networks so far across 14 countries, according to the Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA). The Middle East has become another hotspot for LTE network construction. Viva Bahrain and Zain Bahrain in Bahrain; Mobily, Zain, and STC in Saudi Arabia; and etisalat and du in UAE are front-runners. Operators in Egypt, Kenya, Jordan, and South Africa are also doing trials. "LTE adoption in the Middle East is expected to reach 6.1 per cent of all mobile subscriptions by 2014 due to strong growth of demand for data services, the region's existing reliance on mobile rather than fixed access technologies and the increasingly competitive approaches of the telecom regulators," said Christian Testu at the wireless network division of Alcatel-Lucent. The projected LTE adoption within the early adopters in the region could reach 11.1 per cent of all subscriptions by 2014. A key factor will be LTE-enabled smartphones. "The shift to 4G differs from the shift to 3G because of smartphones' capabilities," said ABI Research's director Phil Solis. In March, the GSA reported there were 100 LTE-ready devices. But only 13 per cent were smartphones and media tablets. In 2014, more than 205 million LTE mobile devices will be shipped, 72 per cent of which being handsets. More LTE-enabled devices are being launched with 98 devices announced in March alone, up from 63 in February. These include modules, handsets, tablets, USB dongles, notebooks and routers. The LTE device ecosystem will progress to mass market by 2012, said Testu. Usage of spectrum "USB modems will be launched first in the UAE as LTE-enabled smartphones will not be immediately available this year," said Matthew Reed, senior analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media. "Around 16 per cent of the UAE mobile market will on LTE by 2016." SMEs and high-end customers will subscribe to LTE initially; prices will be initially high and when packages evolve, uptake will be higher. Most operators in the region are going for primary 2.6GHz spectrum. But in Saudi Arabia this spectrum will not be available as it is used by government entities. By the end of this year, around 24,600 subscribers will be on LTE in the region and rise to 8.79 million by the end of 2015 overtaking both fibre-to-the-home and WiMax in 2014. Around 520,680 will be on WiMax and around 432,400 on FTTH this year, and by end 2015 this will go up to 2.71 million for WiMax and 2.40 million on fibre to the home (FTTH). Chhabra said innovative multimedia applications will stand to benefit greatly, such as video applications, surveillance, conferencing and streaming. "We will see a clear demand to deploy LTE for public health safety networks on the 700 MHz band," he added. "The young population in the region is increasingly sophisticated in terms of how they use broadband and applications over the Internet," Raad said. "In some countries in the region, more than 20 per cent of people are on Facebook and 50-70 per cent access Twitter through mobile phones. "More than 50 per cent change their status on Twitter on a daily basis. That shows how mobile they are." Growth opportunities for operators for offering LTE would also related to application downloads, which could reach 1.5 billion by 2015. From this around 15 per cent could be pay per download. The future for mobile technology is LTE, with Wimax playing a gap-filling role till LTE is ready for wider commercial use. WiMax is expected to appeal to operators without GSM and 3G frequencies. Evolution of technology Mobile communication began with pre-GSM technology, followed by GSM (2G) which was introduced in the early 1990s. It offered better quality and more security, and was instantly popular amongst users. Third generation network (3G) paved way for new technologies in the data sector, providing speeds of up to 7MBps. The introduction of high-speed HSPA+ technology delivered customers data downlink speeds of up to 42.2 Mbps. LTE is a natural evolution from earlier generations of mobile broadband. LTE is one of the latest innovations, with a peak downloading speed of up to 172MBps and upload of 50Mbps, making it a revolution in mobile phone applications. As per the 3rd Generation Partnership Project, which is a collaboration between groups of telecommunications associations, known as the organizational partners, 3GPP Rel8 standard, it starts with 1.4, 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20Mhz are all standardised. More the bandwidth, higher the throughput. The suitable frequency bands suitable for deploying LTE are 700MHZ and 2.6GHZ. The 700MHZ is recommended for wide and rural areas while 2.6GHZ is said to deliver better speed and be more effective in urban areas. WiMax is defined by IEEE and WiMax Forum, while LTE is specified by 3GPP paving the way for a seamless handover between all three technologies GSM, WCDMA and LTE. A clear demand is coming to refarm the WiMax spectrum towards time division duplex (TDD) LTE, and seeking those bands to be 3GPP standardised, thus opening the door for the current WiMax customers to consider going to TDD LTE. The choice of technology depends on a number of things including available spectrum, legacy interworking, timing and operator business focus. There are clear migration paths from WiMax to TD-LTE, but ultimately this will depend on customer preference.