Russian central bank’s risky scenario expects Urals price at $35 per barrel in 2019

The Bank of Russia in its risky scenario assumes that the average Urals oil price will be at the level of $35 per barrel next year, the central bank’s report on monetary policy revealed on Saturday.

"Under the risky scenario, the oil price is projected to fall to $35 per barrel in 2019 and remain at this level later, making it impossible for the energy resources exporter countries to keep the agreements on cutting the output," the report said.

In its baseline scenario, the regulator improved the average Urals oil price forecast for 2018 to $69 per barrel from $67 and to $60 from $55 in 2019. The risky scenario assumes that external conditions for Russian economy will significantly worsen and global economic growth and trade will be weaker compared with the baseline scenario.

"This may be linked to a range of unfavorable events, which may take place in any combination. Among them is the significant expansion of foreign trade restrictions, the deterioration of macroeconomic situation in the countries with developing markets and the rise in capital outflow from there, as well as the risks that international sanctions against Russia will further expand," the regulator said.