Al Assad takes a gamble with address to nation

President Al Assad waving to the crowd after leaving the Syrian Parliament Bashar Al Assad doesn't really look like an Arab president. Or a dictator, come to that. He doesn't have the arrogant grandeur of a Bin Ali or the self-centred pomposity of a Mubarak. Considering the public mood in the Middle East this may even give Al Assad an advantage. The less any leader resembles Tunisian Bin Ali or Egyptian Hosni Mubarak at the moment, the better, and his pep talk on Wednesday to the Damascus scout troop sorry, parliament seemed to be much appreciated. "Dyb dyb dyb dob dob dob," they chanted at every opportunity. Well, not exactly, but they might just as well have done. They clapped a lot, interrupted him with loyal declarations of support and even lauded him with poems. Al Assad, for his part, looked comfortable and relaxed and seldom referred to his notes. He smiled from time to time and chuckled at his own jokes. It's easy to see why many Syrians prefer him to his dad though, to be honest, it's very hard not to be more likeable than Hafez Al Assad. It was when Bashar came to the now-obligatory section of his speech where embattled presidents blame foreign conspiracies for the demonstrations where it became confusing. Surely he had got it the wrong way round. Others have been saying that the aim of the "foreign conspiracy", if such it is, is to keep Al Assad in power, not to remove him. What about that article in Haaretz the other day describing Al Assad as "Israel's favourite Arab dictator"? Or Hillary Clinton praising him as a "reformer"? So how will it play out in Syria? For hard-core regime supporters, it's an attitude they can understand and admire. One of them, quoted in Joshuah Landis's Syria Comment blog, said:
"Finally, I respect Bashar. He has showed that he is a real man. He has spared the country bloodshed. Any sign of weakness, it would have been the start of the end. "All the modern and reform-minded people are dreamers. They live abroad and think that Syria can become a London/Paris/NY if we just reform. It is either civil war or the status quo. "Kentucky Fried Chicken? We can do without it. Those that don't like it can leave to their fancy foreign capitals or Beirut. They are welcome [to visit Syria] in the summer to enjoy the food and arghile and go back to their democracy."
But what of the others, almost certainly the majority, who are not hard core? What faith can they place in the assurances of steady reform? Since Al Assad came to power 11 years ago, a few reforms very modest ones in comparison with what needs to be done have been accomplished, perhaps not at a snail's pace but certainly at a speed that could be overtaken by a tortoise. Even Al Assad conceded in his speech: "The state has made promises of reform and they have not been carried out."
There is no guarantee, though, that reforms promised for the future will be any more radical than those of the past. In the words of another Syrian quoted by Landis: "Somebody has decided that either all Syrians are dumb and [the regime] can continue to trick them for ever or that civil war is much better than giving the people more power." One of the most telling parts of Wednesday's performance was not Al Assad's speech itself but what it revealed about the sycophancy of Syria's parliament. This is clearly not a place for hammering out laws and policies through the cut and thrust of debate. It is a temple for the Al Assad cult and changing that will take a revolution.
The message 'is reform at own pace' Contrary to the impression given in some of the news reports, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad did talk about reform, and talked about it rather a lot. Syria is already reforming, he said, and will continue to do so. But just when it seemed that he might be on the point of announcing some specific new reforms, he stopped speaking and the parliament gave him a final round of applause.
To understand why, we have to look at an interview Al Assad gave to the Wall Street Journal at the end of January which he also mentioned in his speech on Wednesday. "If you did not see the need for reform before what happened in Egypt and in Tunisia, it is too late to do any reform. This is first. Second, if you do it just because of what happened in Tunisia and Egypt, then it is going to be a reaction, not an action; and as long as what you are doing is a reaction you are going to fail."
So Al Assad is trying a different tack. Reform, yes, but all in good time. There will be no hasty concessions to protesters as happened in Tunisia and Egypt..
That is certainly a bold strategy but in the midst of growing turmoil it's either a sign of supreme confidence or extreme recklessness.
Fast facts
    * The soft-spoken Bashar took office after the death of his formidable father Hafez Al Assad, who brooked no dissent and refused to bend in the Arab-Israeli conflict for 30 years.
    * Al Assad did appoint a cabinet at the end of 2001 packed with Western-trained technocrats in economic portfolios charged with developing a modern financial system to draw foreign investors.
    * The most visible result was a swathe of legislation to ease financial restrictions and establish private banks.
    * In 2003, Al Assad reshuffled the cabinet citing disappointment with the pace of reform. He made more changes in 2004.
    * In 2007, Al Assad won a referendum that gave him a second seven-year term as president. The poll was considered by opponents, critics and the US to be a sham.
    * He has said he is willing to resume peace talks with Israel, insisting on a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights occupied in 1967, while continuing to position Syria as a self-declared champion of Arab resistance to the Jewish state.
    * Under Al Assad, Syria has been Iran’s closest Arab ally, a major force in Lebanon, and a supporter of Palestinian and Lebanese fighters.
    * The Baath Party, which seized power nearly 50 years ago, has governed under emergency laws and banned all opposition. Other grievances against authorities include the dominance of Al Assad's minority Alawites over the Sunni majority, corruption, economic hardship and a rising cost of living.
    * Since 2005, when Washington withdrew its ambassador to Damascus after the assassination of Lebanese statesman Rafik Hariri, Al Assad has engineered a rapprochement with the West but maintained a hard line against criticism at home.
    * The US resumed full diplomatic relations with Syria last January. However, tensions have grown again over Lebanon, where Damascus ally Hezbollah has gained the upper hand in a political crisis.
    * Al Assad has always insisted that Damascus had no role in the blast which killed Hariri, but was forced to withdraw Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005 under intense global and Lebanese pressure.
    * Hezbollah-backed Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati is trying to form a government after the Shi’ite group and its allies toppled Saad Hariri over his refusal to cut links with a UN-backed court investigating the killing of his father.
    * Al Assad has called for a national unity government in Lebanon, warning that “if you have one side taking over the other side, this means a conflict” which may lead to civil war.
    * Al Assad has said Lebanon's government should reject any tribunal indictment. The tribunal issued a still-secret indictment in January which is expected to accuse Hezbollah members of involvement in the killing. Hezbollah has denied any role and says Mikati's new government must end funding and withdraw Lebanese judges from the court.

From Gulfnews