Palestinians' gambit for UN recognition wobbles

Israeli and Palestinians take part in a rally to voice support for UN recognition of a Palestinian state After 20 years of negotiations with Israel and no lasting peace, Palestinians are pursuing a more unorthodox route: getting the United Nations to recognise Palestine as an independent state and ideally, welcome it as a new UN member.
Two-thirds of Palestinians support the UN bid, which has lifted their expectations of sovereignty.
But now, with the potential vote just two months away and the paperwork due this month, Palestinian National Authority (PNA) officials appear to be getting cold feet. The United States has vowed to veto the move, all but guaranteeing that Palestinians would be denied full UN membership.
While the UN could instead make a symbolic declaration or upgrade the PNA's observer status, officials are increasingly worried that a symbolic but toothless measure could prompt popular frustration and anger that would weaken the PNA and strengthen hardliners like Hamas.
"We need practical help in ending the occupation. Symbolic or declarative achievements [are] not exactly what we are looking for — although useful — [they're] not good enough," says Palestinian government spokesman Gassan Khatib. "The Palestinian leadership has been promising or expecting to deliver in September. When it fails, it will undermine its public standing and strengthen the standing of the opposition."
The Palestinians are still considering their options. On Thursday they sought the advice of neighbours on the UN move at a meeting of the Arab League in Doha, while chief negotiator Saeb Erekat drew up a paper laying out the pros and cons of various strategies at the UN, according to Israel Radio. The Arab League later announced that it will ask the UN for recognition of an independent Palestinian state.
Detractors on all sides
Indeed, members of the Hamas movement in charge of the Gaza Strip argue that the statehood bid is fundamentally flawed.
"[The late Palestinian leader Yasser] Arafat had announced a state in the 1980s, and many countries recognised Palestine as a state, but what did he gain?" asks Ammar Ahmad, a young Hamas policeman and member of a Hamas armed wing in Gaza.
"Nothing but a stupid useless peace process that has harmed the Palestinian cause and the legal struggle of the Palestinians to defy the Israeli occupation.
"Even if [PNA President Mahmoud] Abbas succeeded and got some support from the Arabs and some friendly countries, Israel may reoccupy Gaza and intensify its occupation of the West Bank," says Ahmad, who worries that Israel would stop providing water and electricity and could withhold the tax revenues it collects on behalf of the PNA. "This may be the last nail in the coffin of the already bankrupted PA. This once again proves the legal armed resistance is the best way to get statehood."
The UN campaign has spooked Israel, which views it as a unilateral move that violates past peace treaties.
But Palestinians appear undeterred by the prospect of conflict; three in four expect the PNA to follow up the UN vote with moves to enforce Palestinian sovereignty in the West Bank, according to a late June poll by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) in Ramallah. "Obviously, those most worried about this are the [Palestinian] commanders of the security services who are concerned about the increased chances for conflict with demonstrators," says PCPSR director Khalil Shikaki in an e-mail.
Israeli security forces, too, are bracing for mass protests pegged to the UN move and inspired by the spirit of popular demonstration and civil disobedience spreading through the region.
Israeli fears
Israel is also concerned that formal UN support for an independent Palestine could play into a broader campaign to delegitimise Israel's credentials, risking a pariah status similar to apartheid South Africa.
President Obama and US lawmakers, seeking to protect Israel and viewing the UN move as a challenge to its leadership on the peace process, have strongly opposed the statehood bid.
On June 29, the US Senate passed a unanimous resolution urging Palestinian leaders to "cease all efforts at circumventing the negotiation process", specifically calling out the UN campaign. If the PA fails to cease such efforts, the resolution warned, Congress could place restrictions on the roughly half-billion dollars in annual aid it sends to the PNA.
Palestinian analyst Hani Al Masri believes that Abbas' aides are looking for an exit strategy. "They are afraid of stopping aid from the US. They are afraid of Palestinian protests," he says.
The UN move coincides with a deadline for a peace deal declared by Obama last year at a peace conference with both Abbas and Benjamin Netanyahu.