Israeli-Palestinian conflict in 2016, more of same expected for future

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not come any closer to an end in 2016 and the following year does not bode well either.

In fact, the year was marred by a low-intensity conflict that began in the middle of 2015. Over 200 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces. Tens of Israelis have been killed by Palestinian attackers.

The violence subsides at times, escalates at others and serves as a constant reminder that the problem is here to stay.

Harel Chorev-Halewa, an expert on Middle Eastern studies in the Tel Aviv University, expects the attacks by young Palestinians against Israelis to continue, classifying it as a "social epidemic."

"An outburst is always possible as long as the idea continues to exist in social media networks," he said.

The use of social media networks by individual Palestinians is believed by many to be the fuel behind stabbings and other similar types of attacks.

Mkhaimar S A Abusada, an associate professor at Gaza's Al Azhar University, believes that the continuation of the violence depends on Israeli conduct.

"If Israel will continue with settlements, house demolitions, collective punishment -- that might push more Palestinian youth to act," he said.

Israel captured the West Bank in 1967 as a result of the Mideast war. Since then, the country has been settling the area with Jewish residents. There are approximately 600,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank, living side by side with 2.5 million Palestinians.

Palestinians see the West Bank as a critical part of their future independent state. For them, settlements are facts on the ground that hindered this aspiration.

Israeli settlements in the West Bank continued to grow in 2016 and are not going anywhere in the following year.

In fact, in recent weeks the Israeli parliament has debated a law dubbed the regulation law, which is intended to legalize settlements that have been created in what is believed to be previously privately owned Palestinian land.

The law has created great controversy within Israel, amongst Palestinians and internationally.

However, for average Palestinians, the law does not change anything on the ground.

With or without the law, Israeli settlements are still stuck like a bone in the throat of Palestinians.

"The law doesn't matter -- the settlements are there anyway," said Abusada.

"The regulation law is really an attempt to deal with Israel's Supreme Court. It is intended for internal political reasons," Chorev-Halewa explained.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must appease his right-wing coalition. Some of its members are eager to consolidate Israel's hold on the West Bank.

Nevertheless, the country's Supreme Court will most likely rule that the law in unconstitutional -- making it obsolete.

This year is expected to end with a French attempt at a conference aimed at ending the stalemate between Israelis and Palestinians.

While the Palestinians have responded positively to the initiative, Israel has repeatedly declined the invitation.

"Netanyahu realizes the conditions of the initiative do not fit him and he does not want to find himself there," says Chorev-Halewa.

At first, the French said that a failed conference would result in French recognition of a Palestinian state. They later backtracked on this commitment but Netanyahu has said he is only interested in direct negotiations with the Palestinians.

"The Palestinians believe bilateral negotiations are a waste of time," said Abusada. "They want a clear timetable and an international framework."

As long as both parties do not even agree on how to negotiate, the chances of seeing negotiations in the coming year are slim.

The next year will begin with the inauguration of a new U.S. president, Donald Trump, a mystery for Israelis and Palestinians.

"Trump is the big variable here. He could change things if he applies pressure but I am not sure it interests him," said Chorev-Halewa.

While his campaign was characterized by pro-Israeli statements and ambitious remarks saying "Israeli-Palestinian peace would be the ultimate deal" for him to strike, his view from the White House may very well change.

"The checks and balances of the U.S. system will moderate him," Chorev-Halewa believes.

Abusada said his campaign statements were "bad news" for the Palestinians. According to him, Trump needs "to shift gears and act as a more responsible leader."

For a few moments in September 2016, there was a glimmer of hope for Israelis and Palestinians.

Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas shook hands at the funeral of late Israeli president Shimon Peres.

Abusada said that the brief moment "gave some optimism" and was a signal that Abbas was willing "to do whatever it takes to make negotiations happen."

Minutes later when Netanyahu addressed all of the dignitaries attending but failed to mention Abbas, it was clear the handshake was no more than a handshake.

Both leaders have made statements throughout the year emphasizing the distance and animosity between them.

"There isn't any light at the end of the tunnel," Abusada said.

Unless a major breakthrough occurs in the form of severe pressure from a new Trump administration in the U.S., the stalemate and violence is expected to continue throughout 2017.

source: Xinhua