U.S.-led attacks on ISIL-held oil refineries in Syria will be successful in destroying the terror group’s income network there but this tactic will not succeed if applied to extremist-held oil fields in Iraq, say experts.
Having taken major oil fields in the north of Syria, ISIL is rumored to be earning millions of dollars and to have created a local market in which they produce, refine and sell oil within the country to other opposition-held areas, as well as the Assad regime, either directly or indirectly.
U.S. Central Command on Wednesday announced that the U.S., Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hit a dozen ISIL-controlled oil refineries in remote areas of eastern Syria near Al-Mayadin, Al-Hasakah and Abu Kamal during yesterday's attacks.
ISIL makes as much as $2 million per day selling illegal oil, and produces anywhere between 300-500 barrels of refined petroleum per day, Central Command said.
Cuneyt Kazokoglu of London-based Facts Global Energy consultancy told the Anadolu Agency that if the refineries have been hit this will mean the end of ISIL's oil production.
"However," he added, " ISIL produces around 50,000 barrels ofoil per day (bpd) in Syria, and 25-30,000 bpd in Iraq. Attacks will curb ISIL's income but in Iraq especially they won't make an impact on the country's oil infrastructure as ISIL-controlled fields only make a marginal contribution to country's total output."
Paul Wihbey, president of the Washington-based Global Water and Energy Strategy Team said: "Since most of the ISIL oil operations are located at sites in open and under-populated territory in northeast Syria, airstrikes on these vulnerable targets will greatly reduce the daily intake of $1-2 million that ISIS has enjoyed over the last several months."
Wihbey said similar attacks on Iraqi oil installations and infrastructure which are controlled or under siege by ISIL are unlikely, in the hope that such vital and expensive structures can be recaptured and returned to Iraqi authorities with minimal damage.
ISIL militants have taken the Raqqa, Dair az Zor and al Omar oil fields in the north of Syria since last November. They have continued to seize large amounts of territory in Iraq since June when they captured the northern city of Mosul, including the largest oil refinery, Baiji, and claim to hold around 17 percent of Iraq's oil resources.
The U.S. has conducted 20 strikes against ISIL-held targets in Syria and nearly 200 airstrikes against the group in Iraq.