As the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has ignored Ankara’s warnings against holding an independence referendum for Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey is getting ready to implement sanctions.
Its options include closing the Habur border crossing, freezing exports and oil and gas purchases from the KRG, and intensifying diplomatic efforts to convince other regional countries to implement similar measures.
In line with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Iran on Oct. 4, Ankara also intends to take joint steps with Tehran against the KRG.
Turkey’s top media watchdog RTUK removed the northern Iraq-based Rudaw from satellite broadcasting on the day of the independence vote.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Monday said his country’s military will cut its support for training Kurdish Peshmerga forces.
Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said: “We won’t enter an adventure unexpectedly in any way, but if there’s an attitude that will harm the interests of our country, we’ll respond without delay.”
Erdogan took a tougher stance, saying Turkey will not allow the formation of terrorist states along its borders.
“We could come suddenly one night,” he said on Monday. “Irrespective of the result, we see this (referendum) as null and void, and say it’s illegitimate.”
Bilgay Duman, an expert on Iraqi affairs at Ankara-based think tank ORSAM, said the decision to go ahead with the referendum was irresponsible.
He added that KRG President Masoud Barzani’s motives in doing so were to raise the stakes and enhance his bargaining position with Baghdad.
“There’s a serious political crisis going on in the KRG since his opponents rejected extending his term in office in 2015, while financial difficulties were also undermining his authority,” Duman told Arab News.
“Turkey won’t sit and watch developments unfold after the referendum.***It will implement diplomatic, political, economic and military sanctions at the same time.” Duman said Turkey will probably strengthen ties with Baghdad, as shown by the recent visit of the Iraqi Army’s Chief of Staff Othman Al-Ghanmi to Ankara on Saturday.
In reaction to the referendum, both countries’ armies started joint military maneuvers on the Turkish side of the border on Monday evening.
“A new operation by Turkey in northern Iraq’s Sinjar mountains against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) may be expected in the near term, considering that the Turkish Parliament on Saturday allowed military operations in northern Iraq,” Duman said.
Closing Habur, the only gateway for the KRG to trade with the world, would suffocate its economy, he added.
“In 2015, during a military operation against PKK hideouts, Turkey closed its border gate for just 22 days, and even the price of a bottle of water skyrocketed at that time,” he said.
But Galip Dalay, research director at Al-Sharq Forum in Istanbul, said he does not expect military ramifications.
“The outcome (of the referendum) will be economic and diplomatic,” Dalay told Arab News. “In the short term, Turkish-KRG relations will suffer. Given the nature of discourse in Turkey, it’s likely that Ankara will take some steps. But I don’t think it will be long-running and drastic.”
Relations between Ankara and Baghdad will improve in the short term due to their opposition to the Kurdish bid for statehood, he said.
“But in the mid-to-long-term, I’m not that optimistic about the relations. Both countries’ strategic orientations and alliance structure remain opposed to each other,” he added.