Possibilities cannot be ruled out that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has recently heightened tensions near the inter-Korean border area to protest against South Korean civic groups flying anti-DPRK leaflets across the border, Seoul's defense ministry said Monday.
Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok told a press briefing that there are some thinkable intentions of the DPRK behind provocations during the weekend, including preparations to shift responsibility on South Korea for another provocation in case of civic groups dispersing anti-DPRK leaflets in the border area.
On Sunday, South Korea and the DPRK exchanged fires across the land border in Paju, some 40 km northwest of capital Seoul, as about 10 DPRK soldiers approached the military demarcation line ( MDL) inside the demilitarized zone (DMZ).
After broadcasting warning messages, South Korea launched warning shots against the DPRK soldiers who fired back against the South Korean guard post within the DMZ. The exchange of machine gun fire lasted for about 10 minutes.
On Saturday, some other DPRK soldiers approached the MDL in Cheorwon, some 88 km northeast of Seoul, to read markers on the northern side of the MDL. They returned back after South Korea fired warning shots, to which the DPRK troops did not respond.
DPRK soldiers often approach the MDL to read the markers as part of reconnaissance activity, but it was the first time this year that the DPRK fired back against South Korean warning shots, indicating the DPRK's strong military response to future provocations, especially the scattering of anti-DPRK leaflets.
"During the latest inter-Korean military dialogue, there was no change in the South Korean stance over the anti-DPRK leaflets distribution," Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the private Sejong Institute, said over phone. "From my judgment, North Korea (DPRK) increased tension in border areas to spread fears over casualties caused by the additional dispersion of anti-North Korean (DPRK) leaflets."
General-level military officials from the two Koreas held a closed-door meeting on Oct. 15, but no agreement was reached on the anti-DPRK leaflets dispersion, the stop of which Pyongyang reportedly demanded strongly.
On Oct. 10, the DPRK forces fired machine gun toward balloons carrying the anti-DPRK leaflets floated by a South Korean civic organization. Some conservative South Korean civic groups recently announced their plan to fly anti-DPRK leaflets on Oct. 25 in areas near the western inter-Korean land border, causing the DPRK's threat of aimed shots.
Pyongyang repeatedly called for the stop of the leaflets spreading, accusing Seoul of supporting and acquiescing to the leaflets distribution. South Korea has denied the DPRK's allegation, saying it was groundless to claim that the leaflets scattering was connected with the authorities.
Cheong said the DPRK may continue provocations to raise military tensions if there is no change in South Korea's position over the anti-DPRK leaflets distribution, noting that even if the senior-level inter-Korean dialogue is held as agreed, there would be no meaningful consequence from the talks due to the rigid South Korean stance over the leaflets scattering.
On Oct. 4, three top-level DPRK officials made a surprise visit to South Korea and agreed to the second round of high-level talks between the two Koreas. Seoul has proposed to hold the dialogue on Oct. 30, but Pyongyang has yet to respond to it
Ju Chul-ki, senior presidential secretary for foreign affairs and security, told a press briefing Sunday that the high-level dialogue was anticipated to be held as scheduled as it was agreed upon during the top DPRK officials' visit to South Korea's Incheon on Oct. 4.
He noted that South Korea was preparing for and anticipating the senior-level inter-Korean dialogue "without a hitch."