Indonesia ready to face global crisis in 2012

Having prepared itself by taking anticipatory steps in the economic field over the past several months, Indonesia which is considered to be one of the emerging markets in Asia along with Vietnam, is now ready to face a protracted global crisis in 2012.

"The government has in the past two months prepared itself to face a possible worsening of the global crisis and its impact on Indonesia," Finance Minister Agus Marowardojo said over the weekend.

Many quarters, including economic analysts and observers, have predicted the global economic crisis that has been taking place in a number of European countries and the United States will continue into the 2012.

Therefore, according the finance minister, the government had continued to make assessments, preparations and coordination at ministerial to presidential level as an anticipatory step to face a possible worsening of the global crisis that would have an impact on Indonesia`s economy.

The minister said Indonesia already knew how to anticipate crisis from lessons it had learned from the financial turmoil that hit the world in 2008 and 2009. "In many respects, our experience in facing the 2008/2009 financial crises is still relevant to what we have to deak with today," Agus Martowardojo said.

In this case, the government had also prepared assumptions in the 2012 state budget which were adjusted to predicted conditions where the country was made ready to face possible financial turmoil, although the government had also to give special attention to the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) and oil lifting price.

"In general, the 2012 state budget is good and has been prepared since last May. We have taken into account forecast developments in the September - October period, namely possible worse developments in the European crisis," the minister said.

In the 2012 state budget there were articles that could be used to respond if serious crisis did take place. The articles will enable the government to prepare follow up anticipatory steps in a revised state budget, he said.

"We have agreed with the House of Representatives (DPR) to include articles on anticipatory steps in the state budget if a crisis takes place. So, if crisis takes place which is far from the assumed conditions, we can revise the state budget," the minister said.

The minister`s prediction that Indonesia would be able to withstand the crisis was shared by stock market analyst Pardomuan Sihombing.

"Although the Indonesian financial market, such as stock market, has also felt the negative impact of the European and United States financial crisis, yet many countries in the world felt worse ones," Pardomuan Sihombing told a seminar on Indonesia`s "Market Outlook 2012," last week.

He said that the world economic condition which was marred by financial crisis in Europe and the United States is predicted not to significantly disturb Indonesia`s economic growth next year.

He said that Indonesia would remain to show its strong economic performance and would not be affected significantly by global financial crisis. Indonesia`s positive Marco economic fundamentals were the main pillars that would protect Indonesia from the protracted market upheavals.

Stocks markets in developing countries like Indonesia are expected to remain in steady growth in 2012. This was, he said, thanks to the fact that the emerging markets would develop stronger than those of advanced nations such as Europe and the United States.

As a result, foreign funds will flow into the emerging markets, particularly those in Asia. "Foreign players still see that the investment market in Indonesia will continue to grow. Although in August there was capital outflow, yet in September they came back with a volume reaching 1.6 billion," he said.

He said that Indonesia at present had not yet been rated an investment grade country, yet foreign funds had continued to flow amid the upheavals of the global economy.

This developments, he said, were signs if Indonesia is about to be raised to an investment grade country.

"There is still foreign ownership in Indonesia because foreign investors still maintain it for they are still convinced that Indonesia will still grow and provide high yields," he said.

He said that empirically buying by foreign investors was a positive sign that Indonesia was strong against global crisis where foreign players had premium information.

On the occasion, Pardomuan also said that the global economic growth would be boosted by countries of the emerging markets such as Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentine (VISTA).

"Previously, the world economic pillars were China and India. But now, holders of the world economic pillars have begun to shift. China and India are now experiencing a slow economic growth development, while those of the VISTA group continued to show upward trend based on the expectation," he said.

He said that developing countries are expected to experience an average economic growth of 4.7 percent per annum while advanced states such as the United States had only about 1.5 percent.

"Indonesia can have optimism with an economic growth of 6.5 percent and it would constitute biggest growth in the world," he said.

Observer Abidin of securities company Milenium Danatama Sekuritas is also of the view that Indoniesia?s economic growth in 2012 would reach 6.5 percent. "Many analysts have projected the Indonesian economy to grow 6.5 percent despite the global crisis. This serves as a positive sentiment for local capital market players," he said.

He said domestic share market players had become increasingly mature in facing economic crisis. "The 2008 crisis served as a valuable lesson for domestic investors to face the global crisis," he said

Source: ANTARA