Indonesian major parties need coalition government

Electoral contestants in Wednesdays (April 9) legislative elections will need a coalition to form a government as, based on quick counts, none of them has collected the required number of votes to nominate a presidential candidate. 

Although the official results of the legislative elections will be announced by the General Elections Commission (KPU) on May 7 and 9, quick vote counts by various survey institutions have shown that none of the political parties has secured 25 percent of the votes. 

By law, a political party is required to win at least 25 percent of the total votes or a minimum of 20 percent of the 560 seats contested in the House of Representatives (DPR) before it can nominate its presidential candidate to vie for the presidential election.

This suggests that the winner of Wednesdays legislative elections, in this case the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) based on the quick count, should form a coalition so that it could nominate a presidential candidate for next July 9 presidential race.

Quick vote count by the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) on Wednesdays elections placed the PDIP in the first position, winning 19.77 percent of the votes, followed by the Golkar Party 14.61 percent, the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) 11.80 percent and the ruling Democratic Party (PD) in the fourth place with 9.73 percent.

The fifth position was won by the National Awakening Party (PKB) by securing 9.07 percent of the votes, followed by the National Mandate Party (PAN) in the sixth position (7.47 percent), the United Development Party (PPP) in the seventh place (7.08 percent).

And then the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) in the eighth place with 6.61 percent, the National Democrat Party (NasDem) 6.77 percent, the Peoples Conscience Party (Hanura) 5.26 percent, the Crescent and Star Party (PBB) 1.36 percent; and the Indonesian Prosperous and Unity Party (PKPI) 0.97 percent.

With almost even distribution of votes won by the electoral contestants, no single political party can nominate its own presidential candidate. They need to coalesce to meet at least 25 percent of votes as required by the law to nominate a presidential hopeful.

Based on Law No. 42/2008 on Presidential and Vice Presidential Elections, a political party or a coalition of political parties should win at least 25 percent of the national votes, or secure at least 20 percent of the 560 seats in the House of Representatives before it can nominate its presidential candidate.

Indonesia Survey Institute Researcher Rully Akbar stated on Wednesday night that with such a vote constellation, the electoral contestants could form three bases of coalition that will decide the real political map in the upcoming presidential race.

"The three maps of coalitions are the PDIP-led coalition, the coalition of Golkar and the coalition of the other parties," Rully Akbar pointed out.

In the meantime, the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Executive Director Denny JA predicted that PDIP and Golkar will become leaders of a coalition in the next government.

"PDIP and Golkar will become coalition leaders. This means that they will compete in the presidential race but after the presidential elections, they will set up a joint coalition government," observed Denny JA on Wednesday.

PDIP itself has indicated it will open a chance for a coalition. PDIP executive board chairman Panda Nababan confirmed in Medan, North Sumatra that his party, after seeing the result of the legislative elections, was aware that the presidential contest will be very tight.

However, with the high votes it won in the legislative elections, PDIP became more convinced in the face of the presidential race on July 9, 2014.

Yet, it does not mean that it will rule out the possibility of cooperating with other political parties, particularly with those having the same political platforms.

"So, the opportunity to form a coalition government is open," Panda asserted.

Panda explained that PDIP is likely to coalesce with political parties which is so far yet to announce their presidential hopefuls, such as the PKB, PKS, NasDem, PAN and PPP.

The likelihood of a coalition with political parties, which have already announced their presidential candidates like Hanura, Gerindra and Golkar is small because PDIP has nominated Joko Widodo as its presidential candidate.

"Unless, they (Hanura, Gerindra and Golkar) change their candidates," he added. 

Earlier in the day, Golkar General Chairman Aburizal Bakrie stated that his party will not coalesce with other parties in the face of the upcoming presidential elections.

"Golkar can pick up its own vice presidential candidate from the non party circle or professional," Ical, as Aburizal Barkrie is intimately called, pointed out before he cast his vote in Wednesdays legislative elections.

Ical, who made the statement before the results of the quick counts were made public, has been indicated as the Golkars presidential candidate.

Prabowo Subianto, presidential candidate and chief patron of Gerindra, which is the fourth in the line of the votes based on the preliminary quick count results, stated that his party will decide on a coalition after the legislative elections.

"We have to first see the results of the legislative elections," he explained at Polling Station 02 in Bojong Koneing Village, Bogor District, West Java. 

However, he added that he could not yet ascertain when the decision will be made, whether after the results of the legislative elections were announced through the quick counts or after the official count by the General Elections Commission (KPU).

The ruling Democratic Party (PD) meanwhile asserted that it was still studying the political developments after the legislative elections.

"Democrat has not decided with whom it will coalesce. We are now consolidating and after observing the clear political map; of course, we will develop political communications with other parties," PD General Chairman Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who is also the Indonesian incumbent president, clarified on Wednesday night.

"There is a question as to whether the PD will be in the coalition or become an opposition if the president of the coalition is not based on the PDs nomination. I would say it could be both. If it is acceptable, the PD will be in the coalition, if not, it is ready to become an opposition," Yudhoyono stressed.

The readiness to communicate with other political parties was also expressed by PKB General Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar. He indicated that PKB is open to political communication, including with PDIP and Gerindra.

"The legislative elections will be very decisive in forming a coalition because a coalition is decided by vote gains. Significant vote gains are decisive," Muhaimin asserted after casting his vote at Polling Station 11 in Kemang Raya, South Jakarta on Wednesday.

The National Mandate Party (PAN) is also open for a coalition with any political party. PAN Chairman Hatta Rajasa emphasized that a coalition is a must.

"Coalition is a must in a multi-party parliamentary system," Hatta Rajasa emphasized after casting his vote in Ogan Komering Ilir, South Sumatra on Wednesday.

He confirmed that PAN has conducted a political communication with PDIP.

"We are thinking of the future as to how to maintain what has been achieved so far," Hatta, who is the Chief Economic Minister in the Yudhoyono Government, pointed out.

The other smaller parties, namely PKS, NasDem and PPP have also expressed their readiness to join a coalition government. 

PKS president Anis Matta stated that his party is open to coalition with any party, including PDIP, without considering the ideological platforms of the parties concerns.

"We are open with regard to coalition," Anis Matta asserted.

NasDem also expressed its readiness to take part in a coalition. However, it will not take an active approach to other parties regarding coalition.

"We will adopt a passive attitude. We are ready to stay inside and outside a coalition government. What is important now for us is our movement to fight for reforms in Indonesia. We are aware of the fact that we are not in the big three winners of the elections," NasDem General Chairman Surya Paloh elucidated.

The PPP, in the meantime, has communicated with political parties.

"We have begun building mutual understanding and communications with other contestants, the most intensive one is with Gerindra chief Patron Prabowo. However, we do not rule out the possibility (of a coalition) with any other party," PPP General Chairman Suryadharma Ali confirmed, after casting his vote at a polling station in Menteng Dalam, Jakarta.

Source: ANTARA

Source: ANTARA