Post-Assad Iran

The phrase “post-Assad Syria” has become widespread today, especially with the bulk of influential Western countries mobilizing, along with, we assume, the Arab states, in order to focus on the phase after the fall, or departure, of Bashar al-Assad. However, there is another matter that the countries of the region specifically should start thinking about, if they are not already doing so, namely: post-Assad Iran! Thoughts must now be centered on how Iran will act without its ally and agent al-Assad, who facilitated its movement into important and vital areas in our region, from Iraq to Lebanon, from Jordan to Gaza, and from Egypt to the Gulf and likewise Yemen. Both Khomeinist Iran and Syria under the al-Assad regime took part in fostering and strengthening all kinds of terrorist monsters in our region, from all directions. Now, how will Iran act without its terrorist lung in the region, the al-Assad regime, and how will it manage to loosen the blockade forming today around Hassan Nasrallah, whose weapons could be turned to scrap in the southern suburbs of Beirut after the fall of al-Assad? How will Iran be able to fulfill its project in Iraq, after we see a unanimous snub from all its Arab neighbors, even Turkey, towards this sectarian regime that only plays into the hands of Tehran? How will Iran deal with the new regime in Syria that rejects subservience to Tehran, and considers it today as Syria’s number one enemy, not for sectarian reasons, but because Khomeinist Iran supports the criminal al-Assad regime in spite of all the killing and torture it has committed against the Syrians. These are not merely predictions, for the day before yesterday, Free Syrian Army (FSA) commander Lieutenant Colonel Khalid al-Hamud told Asharq al-Awsat that “any Iranian is now banned from entering Syria. We will cut down their feet under whatever name they enter with, either as fighters or pilgrims”. Hence the focus is now on post-Assad Syria but our region must not lose sight, specifically the influential countries, as well as Turkey, of post-Assad Iran. The coming phase will have many consequences for our region in terms of security, politics and economics, and Iran will likely transform into a state of madness. How could it not, given Tehran’s reaction as it currently tastes the bitterness of the al-Assad regime teetering on the brink in Syria? Here we find Iran forced to resort to both Turkey and Qatar, pleading for them to intervene for the release of Iranians detained by the FSA in Damascus! What also requires serious consideration within the context of post-Assad Iran is what happened recently on the Israeli-Egyptian border in Sinai, which cannot in any way be separated from what is happening in Syria, especially with the threats of several Iranian officials to the Arabs and Israel, and likewise the West, that the fall of al-Assad would mean the burning of the entire region, along with Israel. Therefore, there is a need for all in our region to prepare for post-Assad Iran. The fall of al-Assad for Iran would be like a thunderous political earthquake, felt by the Mullahs under their feet in Tehran, and likewise by Hassan Nasrallah in the suburbs of Beirut. --- The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.