War Drums Resounding!

Are war drums resounding in the Gulf?! Will the region witness a fourth Gulf war, considering that the first was the Iraqi-Iranian war, the second was the Kuwait liberation war and the third was the American war to topple Saddam’s regime and occupy Iraq? Will the Arab Gulf states find themselves forced to enter the arena of a war that they do not want and that was imposed on them? Or will there be a Cold War without any aircrafts or tanks, limited between intelligence apparatuses and featuring the clipping of the wings?! Why did the efforts of the Gulf states recently increase to enhance their military capabilities? And why is Iran insisting on threatening to close the Hormuz Strait and staging military maneuvers in the Gulf? Last Friday, Iranian Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, the naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, announced that the “Guard’s Navy will conduct naval exercises in the Gulf region and the Hormuz Strait,” indicating that the recent maneuvers of the Iranian army focused on the “sea of Oman, while the main weight of the maneuvers carried out by the Revolutionary Guards will be seen the Gulf and the Hormuz Strait.” He indicated that Iran “fully controls the Hormuz Strait and its troops are monitoring all the movements in the area.” These developments among others feature signs pointing to the mounting Iranian harassment of the Gulf states, whether through military maneuvers, the threats to shut down the Hormuz Strait or the ongoing attempts to confirm its full control over the Arab Gulf region. This provoked British Defense Minister Philip Hammond and prompted him to warn Tehran that his country was willing to use force to keep the Hormuz Strait open. During the last few months, Iran received two slaps on the cheeks. The first was when the Gulf Cooperation Council states sent the Peninsula Shield Force to Bahrain to prevent any foreign interference in its affairs, which prevented Tehran from exploiting the turmoil in the GCC member state. The second slap was seen in the eruption of a free popular revolution in Syria, i.e. Iran’s strongest strategic ally in the region, to the point where Damascus became preoccupied with its own affairs - far away from its ally – in order to seek exits. Tehran on the other hand believes it has won the battle in Iraq following the American troops’ pullout, for reasons that would take a long time to explain. This belief is backed up by the presence of Nouri al-Maliki’s government, which is a close ally to Tehran. I tried to get answers to the questions on the table by addressing them to the Gulf officials. However, they keep avoiding the questions, do not wish to answer them and would rather remain silent, which probably further complicates the situation. It thus seems that the Gulf journalist must turn westward and ask the questions to the Americans and the Europeans after each Iranian statement or threat, in the hope of getting some answers that would put an end to the numerous speculations. Iran and the Gulf states have no interest in seeing the continuation of the conflict in the region, considering that wars only cause destruction, the death of the people and the halting of development. If war erupts in the region once again, it will be one that is open to all possibilities in light of the Gulf wish to contain Iran’s regional ambitions and stop its threats and shameful interferences in the neighbors’ affairs, in exchange for Iran’s attempts to control the Gulf and appoint itself as a dominating power over the region. It is known that if Iran were to close the Hormuz Strait, it will prevent the passage of 35% of the oil transferred by sea to the world. The Western states will not remain idle, will not disregard what is happening or place their hands on their cheeks. They will launch a diplomatic action to convince it to open the strait, in parallel to a sudden military strike targeting the Iranian vital and nuclear facilities. But during the current stage, the situation will continue to witness this tug of war and oscillate between threats and truce. However, if the United States and its allies carry out a military strike against Iran for whichever reason, the Gulf countries will have to engage in this war because Iran will not hesitate to strike the American military bases in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, in addition to the oil wells and the Western interests in all the Gulf states, all of which are targets than can be reached by the Iranian rockets. The analysts believe that if this war is imposed on the region, the military aerial and technical prevalence will be in favor of the Gulf and Western states. Nonetheless, Iran will seek the creation of turmoil in the region and the undermining of its stability through the mobilization of groups connected to it inside the Gulf states, or the so-called sleeper cells connected to Hezbollah, Syria and some militias! The conflict in the Gulf region is like a dormant volcano that could erupt at any moment, as long as Iran is trying to control the region, threatening to shut down the Hormuz Strait, rejecting the solutions in regard to its nuclear program, disregarding the relations with the neighboring countries and insisting on occupying the Emirati islands. What is certain is that the Gulf states do not want war and do not want to hear the war drums resounding. But at the same time, they want to thwart the Iranian regional project and Tehran’s expansionist intentions. In the meantime, Iran is continuing to croon for war and resound its drums with ongoing threats to the Gulf states and interference in their affairs. But if war were to take place, it would lead Iran many years backward and cause great harm to the Gulf states. Truth be told, wars only bring losses.