Russia, the 'smart-alec' game… and the Syrian reality

Russia's outgoing president Dmitry Medvedev talks about the "short sight" of those who believe that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's relinquishment of power will not solve the crisis in Syria. In fact, the words of the outgoing Russian president who will return as a prime minister soon are somehow true. Yes, the resignation of al-Assad, the son, does not solve the crisis, but it is the first indispensable step on the way to the solution. Hence, it is better for the Russian president to abandon this "smart-alec" game and realise that the current regime is incapable of reform. Moreover, he has to confess that Bashar al-Assad has to leave today before tomorrow, since his presence in power will never lead Syria to anything else but civil war ending with the collapse of this important country. This country which is called Russia claimed it is keen on him as much as they were on the Baathist family regime which was established by Saddam Hussein in Iraq! Russians were supposed to be more familiar with the situation in Syria. They were supposed to confess first of all that the Syrian people are one and that they are not seeking to establish a Sunni regime as claimed by their foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. If there is anything positive in Lavrov's words, it will be revealing that Russians are ignorant with Syria. First of all, more than seventy five per cent of Syrians are Sunni. This is a reality which can not be ignored whether Lavrov wants to or not. The rest of the Syrians belong to Alawite, Christian, Druze and Ismaili minorities. There are Kurdish and Circassian minorities too. Eventually, there is a large minority of Sunni Arabs in Syria. What does the Russian foreign minister practically want? Does he want to say that Sunnis are not entitled to be in power and that the Russian interest contradicts with the Sunnis' acquisition of high posts in Syria and that nothing meets these interests only when the situation in Syria remains unchanged for more than four decades? How can a country like Russia refuse to deal with the Syrian reality as it is and seek to preserve a regime which is no more valid? Perhaps Medvedev and Lavrov along with the new-old president Vladimir Putin believe that the Syrian people adore living in humiliation and love Bashar al-Assad. Perhaps they believe that Assad has nothing to offer for Syrians and Syria but what the forces affiliated with him did in the Homs' neighbourhood of Baba Amr. Does the insolence of Russian officials reach that extent to promote such a miserable regime incapable of solving any problem suffered by Syrians at home and abroad? It seems like the Russians are not willing to learn from the recent past. As they can't realise that this regime was never legitimate, as it was built on a military coup held on March 8 1963. After the coup, the regime adopted a Civil Baathi formation (related to al-Baath Party), but it quickly turned to a military regime that started to exclude the Sunni officers who belonged to the major cities like Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama. Then it turned to exclude the Druze, and finally excluded the Ismailis, so in the end it was the hegemony of three Alawiite officers:Mohammed Omran, Salah Jdid, and Hafez al-Assad. Since 1970, al-Assad (the Father) had taken over sole authority after getting rid of Mohammed Omran and arresting Salah Jdid. He tended to intervene in all the regional affairs except his own people's, the same people who reached a population of 23 million in 2012 after they were just six million in 1970. The Syrian regime which has adopted a familial form since Hafez al-Assad's death, has no choice now except stepping down. It is a regime which is unable to either hold war or peace, and is even unable to address the recent facts in Syria and the Arab World. Is it enough for this regime from the Russian point of view to be a follower of Iran to justify its presence? Moscow used to support "invalid" regimes since the era of the "happily mentioned" Soviet Union. It supported Mohammed Syad Berry's regime in Somalia, then moved to support Mengistu Haille Mariam's regime in Ethiopia, and since 1970 untill 1990 stood behind the regime of what was known as "The Public Democratic Republic of Yemen". The Soviet Union also pushed the Arabs -particullary Egypt- towards wasteful wars. It is clear that the Soviets (now Russians) had learnt nothing from their experience in this region, especially their experience with the al-Baath regime in Iraq, with which they signed a "friendship and coordination treaty" in 1972. Russia may push the Syrian regimes deadline a little farther, but it can never keep it alive forever. What Russia is doing recently is totally in contrast with the logic of history for one main reason, which is that the Syrian cause, is in fact a people's cause. Will Russia understand this simple fact or will it maintain its position, which is intended to push Syria to a civil war that will end with its division? What is regrettable is that with every day of this crisis the odds of a civil war in Syria rises. It is a dreadful war of which only the Syrian people will pay its price, so what is behind this Russian insistence to take revenge from the Syrian people?